From Tyler Badger
Welcome to our first ever CFB DFS Article! The season is heating up with top SEC match-ups on tap for Week 5.
We’re excited to provide you with in-depth analysis and all the tools & strategies you need to be successful in CFB DFS, but please utilize our comments feature at the bottom of this article to leave feedback on what you’d like to see included in the article moving forward.
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COVID-19 NOTICE: PLEASE DOUBLE-CHECK your lineups closer to the game start time as players could be unexpectedly ruled out due to COVID-19 testing or game cancellations.
In this article, players will be broken down by position into two groups:
Safe plays – players that can be confidently used in cash games (i.e. Double-ups) and as part of your core group of players to build your team around in GPPs (tournaments with guaranteed prize pools).
GPP plays – players that have significant upside but also may have a lower floor. These players typically have higher risk (due to matchup, price, etc.) & a greater potential for a “bust” game based on those factors.
So how will we determine which players to use in each format? Review our value system below. Note: This system is tailored towards DraftKings format & scoring.
How the value system works
A value system looks at the salary of the player relative to the number of fantasy points they score. For Cash games (i.e. Double-ups), a 3 to 4X valuation could get you “in the money” depending on type of contest. For GPP’s we’re looking for 5 to 6X, generally. Example: For a player to reach 4X value at a salary of $5000, the player would need to score 20 points (5.0 x 4).
A general guide for targeting value in CFB DFS…
4X value = good play
5X value = great play
6X or more value = elite play
Let’s take a look at the big tournaments of the weekend on DraftKings and FanDuel.
DraftKings: CFB $150K October Opener ($50K to 1st) – $18 entry
FanDuel: $50K Saturday Wishbone ($10K to 1st) – $9 entry
Note: Analysis and pricing is tailored towards DraftKings format & scoring and will cover the main slate on DraftKings (13 games).
Brady White, Memphis ($8,200): POINTS. With a whopping 74 point total, fire up White with confidence. Projected Value: 4X-6X
Alan Bowman, Texas Tech ($7,600): Expect 50+ pass attempts and a high yardage total. His opponent Kansas State is allowing an average of over 500 yards per game of total offense. Big game coming for Bowman. Projected Value: 4X-6X
Skylar Thompson, Kansas State ($6,500): Fresh off leading his team to an upset of OU last week, Thompson comes in averaging over 29 FPs per game which puts him comfortably at 4X value. With a close game expected and 64.5 point total, get him in your lineups. Expect a high ownership due to his performance last week + the low salary.
Projected Value: 4X-6X
Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State ($8,900): Don’t be fooled by the low FP totals to start the year. Chuba is a Heisman candidate and is averaging 24.5 carries per game. KU had the 7th worst rush defense in all of FBS last season. Even better, the price point and average fantasy performance could keep his ownership down slightly. Projected Value: 3X-5X
SaRodorick Thompson, Texas Tech ($7,100): Getting nearly 66% of the team’s share of carries, I LOVE Thompson in this spot. He’s under-priced, in a game where a ton of points will be scored, and he’s average 3 receptions per game. Lock him in.
Projected Value: 3X-5X
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends (Flex)
Damonte Coxie, Memphis ($8,300): Coxie picked up right where he left off in 2019, and he’s not slowing down. He had his best career game in 2019 vs. SMU with 7 catches for 143 yards and 2 TDs. I wouldn’t be surprised if he exceeded that in this year’s matchup. He’s a must-play in all formats & would be an exceptional stack with his QB Brady White. Projected Value: 4X-5X
Jaylen Waddle ($8,100) / DeVonta Smith, Alabama ($6,800): Anytime Alabama plays, both of these guys deserve a look. Waddle is a bit more match-up proof than Smith, but I’m comfortable with either option vs. A&M on Saturday. Projected Value: 3X-6X
Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State ($6,500): His talent at this price? An absolute steal. He’s averaged just under 14 FPs a game thus far, but should hit 4X value with ease against the KU defense. The only concern is if OSU gets up big early and starts pounding the rock. Still, he’s hard to ignore. Expect high ownership. Projected Value: 4X-5X
Sean Dykes, Memphis($5,000): I really debated leaving Dykes off, but his price warrants a discussion. He had a monster performance vs. Arkansas State, catching 10 balls for 137 & 2 TDs after missing nearly all of 2019 with a knee injury. He’s in a good spot vs. SMU and should come close to 4X value but buyer beware: expect very high ownership. It’s a tough call, but Dykes could be one of those guys you roster just to match everyone else. Something else to keep in mind: Memphis hasn’t played in nearly a month due to COVID-19 cancellations. Still, a White/Coxie/Dykes stack is worth considering. Projected Value: 3X-6X
Shane Buechele, SMU ($9,200): Most folks will take the other QB in this game, but sometimes, GPP’s are about being different. Buechele should be in for a big game.
Projected Value: 3X-5X
Sam Ehlinger, Texas ($8,800): We need Ehlinger to hit 35 points to reach 4X value. I think he gets there, but he’s still facing one of the top defenses in the Big 12, one that forced him into a career high 4 INT’s in 2019. Expect 3 TD’s & enough rushing upside to give him a look, but the high price point justifies spending up elsewhere.
Projected Value: 3X-5X
Terry Wilson, Kentucky ($7,400): Wilson isn’t my favorite play on the slate, but the high point total & rushing ability makes him worth a look at this price. Did you see the Ole Miss pass defense last Saturday? Projected Value: 2.5X-5X
Matt Corral, Ole Miss ($6,900): 61.5 point total, priced right around Skylar Thompson, and the slight fear of Plumlee taking away snaps, I think Corral could go overlooked on Saturday. He looks fully comfortable in OC Jeff Lebby’s new offense and has the talent to shine – through the air and on the ground. I’m comfortable with him in both cash games and GPPs at this price. Projected Value: 3X-5X
Najee Harris, Alabama ($9,000): If you’re paying up for RB, I much prefer Chuba, but Harris is also match-up proof. With that said, Texas A&M’s run defense is above average. Expect a couple of TD’s regardless. If you want to go contrarian at RB, Harris is your guy, but the price is steep. Projected Value: 2.5X-4X
Ulysses Bentley IV ($5,900), SMU: TJ McDaniel ($7,500) is also in play here but I love Bentley’s upside. There should be enough FPs to go around for both, but I’m all-in on Bentley in GPPs. Projected Value: 2.5X-6X
LD Brown, Oklahoma State ($4,000): See the notes on his star teammate Chuba Hubbard above. Brown’s averaging 8.3 YPC and is severely underpriced. With OSU expected to cruise in this one, he’s one of my favorite plays on this slate. Projected Value: 4X-6X
Israel Abanikanda, Pitt ($3,500): As of now, Abanikanda is 3rd string RB but the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that more carries are in store for the Freshman. Keep an eye on backfield mate A.J. Davis ($3,300) who is questionable. If he’s out, Abanikanda becomes a must-play facing a dreadful NC State rush defense, needing just 14 FPs to hit value. Also in play here is Vincent Davis ($4,700) who’s averaging 14 carries per game thus far and is the lead back. Projected Value: 3X-6X
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends (Flex)
Reggie Roberson Jr. ($8,100) / Rashee Rice ($5,900), SMU: There’s going to be plenty of FPs to go around in this one, so feel free to utilize either of the SMU wideouts. Roberson has the higher floor but for the price difference, Rice is my preferred option. Additionally, I much prefer Rice over Kylen Granson ($5,300) at the similar price point. Projected Value: 3X-6X
Elijah Moore, Ole Miss ($6,900): Last season, Moore accounted for 36% of his team’s receptions. He picked up right where he left off last season, with 10 catches and a whopping 227 yards. He showed some inconsistency last season in putting up big numbers which is why I have him in a GPP-only spot. With that said, I love stacking him with Corral. Projected Value: 2.5X-6X
T.J. Vasher ($6,100) / Erik Ezukanma ($6,000) / KeSean Carter ($5,000), Texas Tech: Take your pick here and hope for the best. One of them will hit 6X value…the question is: which one? TTU spreads the ball around a ton and it’s hard to ever rely on one guy for fantasy purposes. Dalton Rigdon ($4,100) is expected to be limited or could miss Saturday. Give a bump to the 3 guys above but beware that someone like Ja’Lynn Polk ($3,400) could step up and hit 4X value, even with Rigdon in. I like KeSean Carter ($5,000) if I’m picking one. Projected Value: 2X-7X
Thanks for reading! Enjoy the games, good luck, and Go Dawgs!