From Tyler Badger
HAPPY HALLOWEEN! Welcome back to another week of the CFB Showdown where we cover your top DFS picks of the weekend. Solid week last week, where well over half of our picks performed as we projected or better than we projected. Let’s keep climbing!
BIG SHOUTOUT to SideLine Warning Sports reader, Ryan, for ANOTHER big week!!
We’re excited to provide you with in-depth analysis and all the tools and strategies you need to be successful in CFB DFS, but please utilize our comments feature at the bottom of this article to leave feedback on what you’d like to see included in the article moving forward.
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Also check out our weekly college football locks article with all of the best bets on this weekend’s slate.
COVID-19 NOTICE: PLEASE DOUBLE-CHECK your lineups closer to the game start time as players could be unexpectedly ruled out due to COVID-19 testing or game cancellations.
In this article, players will be broken down by position into two groups:
Safe plays – players that can be confidently used in cash games (i.e. Double-ups) and as part of your core group of players to build your team around in GPPs (tournaments with guaranteed prize pools).
GPP plays – players that have significant upside but also may have a lower floor. These players typically have higher risk (due to matchup, price, etc.) & a greater potential for a “bust” game based on those factors.
So how will we determine which players to use in each format? Review our value system below.
Note: This system is tailored towards DraftKings format & scoring.
How the value system works
A value system looks at the salary of the player relative to the number of fantasy points they score. For Cash games (i.e. Double-ups), a 3 to 4X valuation should get you “in the money” depending on type of contest. For GPP’s we’re looking for 4 to 5X, generally. Example: For a player to reach 4X value at a salary of $5000, the player would need to score 20 points (5.0 x 4).
A general guide for targeting value in CFB DFS…
3X value = good play
4X value = great play
5X or more value = elite play
Let’s take a look at the big tournaments of the weekend on DraftKings and FanDuel (Main Slate)
DraftKings: CFB $175K Candy Bowl ($50K to 1st) – $18 entry
FanDuel: $60K CFB Wishbone ($10K to 1st) – $9.99 entry
Note: Analysis and pricing is tailored towards DraftKings format & scoring and will cover the main slate on DraftKings (13 games)
Safe Plays
Quarterbacks
Spencer Sanders, Oklahoma State ($6,600): Sanders is just too cheap for his talent + matchup. Coming back from injury, he looked comfortable running the ball and ran for over 100 yards in the last matchup with Texas. He’s a lock to hit 3X value, and I’m expecting 4-5X. Projected Value: 3X-5.5X
Michael Penix Jr., Indiana ($6,200): Let’s clear up a couple of things:
1) Penix was short of the goal line and Penn State should have won (well, they didn’t deserve to, but…)
2) He really didn’t look great last week, completing only 53% of his passes, and rushing for negative yardage.
But… (there’s always a “but,” right?), he’s just too cheap for his upside and matchup (see: Spencer Sanders, above). Although Rutgers picked up a win last week (their first one in the B1G since 2017!) they didn’t look great in the secondary. I find it hard to believe he won’t pick up at least 18 FPs on Saturday with his rushing upside in consideration. Projected Value: 3X-5X
Running Backs
Javian Hawkins, Louisville ($7,600): After last week’s impressive performance, we see his price jump $800, but that’s still too low for the matchup vs. an abysmal VT run defense. Hawkins is averaging 21 touches per game and should be in for another big game on Saturday. Projected Value: 3X-5X
Kyren Williams, Notre Dame ($6,500): Don’t let recency bias fool you: Williams has one of the best matchups on the slate, and is $1,900 cheaper than Breece Hall ($9,100). Expect Williams to have his 4th 100-yard game of the season and account for at least 1 TD, likely more. Projected Value: 3X-5X
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends (Flex)
Terrace Marshall Jr., LSU ($7,800): I’m actually okay with fading Marshall in tournaments with LSU’s run-heavy approach & Auburn’s pass D, but he’s been an absolute machine. He’s scored 2 touchdowns in every game this season, and has had 88 or more yards in 3 of 4. He should be a building block of your cash game lineups.
Projected Value: 3X-5.5X
Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State ($7,100): The 4th most expensive on the board is arguably the most talented receiver on the slate. With Spencer Sanders back, Wallace is match-up proof, and happens to be going against a below average Texas secondary. Projected Value: 3X-5X
GPP Plays
Quarterbacks
Ian Book, Notre Dame ($7,000): Georgia Tech hasn’t done anything well defensively this season. Book threw for his first 300-yard game of the season last week, and only his 3rd since the start of the 2019 season. Additionally, Notre Dame has been one of the more run-heavy teams this year, rushing the ball on 62% of plays. The good news is: Book accounts for 18% of those rushing attempts, and accounts for 33% of the rushing TD’s this season. The inconsistency scares me, but there’s no reason to think he won’t put up another 300 total yards along with 3 TD’s. Expect low ownership and the chance to differentiate your lineup with this pick. Projected Value: 3X-5X
Bo Nix, Auburn ($7,100): Back on track last week, Nix looks to build on a great game where he completed a season-high 76% of his passes. LSU’s pass defense has been struggling, although they did hold SC in-check last week. Bo Nix > Colin Hill. Projected Value: 2.5X-5X
Running Backs
Tyrion Davis-Price, LSU ($6,100): With T.J. Finley ($7,300) in at QB for the injured Myles Brennan, LSU ran the ball 72% of the time (!!). The game script certainly contributed to that, but I like taking a look at both Davis-Price and John Emery Jr. ($5,800) this week. Auburn is allowing over 180 yards on the ground on average, and I think you can get both backs at really good ownership this week. TDP is the safer option, but both could reach the end zone on Saturday. Projected Value: 2X-5X
Snoop Conner, Ole Miss ($4,300): This play is TD-dependent in my opinion, but we only need Snoop to get 12-15 FPS to feel comfortable with his production at this price. Ole Miss should get up early in this one and I expect Conner to get at least 15 touches vs. a Vanderbilt defense that is among the worst in football, allowing over 450 yards per game. Not to mention, Conner is 2nd in the SEC with 14 carries on “goal-to-go” situations. Projected Value: 2X-5.5X
Kendall Milton, Georgia ($3,300): I remember watching Nick Chubb my junior year at UGA and thinking “wow, this freshman is going to be an absolute star.” I feel the same way about Milton, except maybe even better. His broken tackle rating is over 52% (2nd in the SEC) per SEC StatCat and over 67% of his yards come after contact. Kendall is near the top of every SEC statistic that makes you go “wow.” He has and will continue to earn more playing time and I like him to get his first career TD vs. the Wildcats and pay off his $3K salary. Projected Value: 1.5X-4X
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends (Flex)
Tutu Atwell, Louisville ($6,800): He needs 20+ FPs to hit 3X value, and he’s only eclipsed that total in 2 of 5 games this season. With that said, he has the explosiveness to go off every time he hits the field and his match-up is one of the most favorable on the slate. Projected Value: 2X-5.5X
Jayden Reed, Michigan State ($6,300): The WMU transfer looked great in MSU’s opener after sitting out last season, per NCAA rules. He saw 14 targets, bringing in 11 of them for 128 yards and 2 TD’s. I wouldn’t count on the touchdowns just yet, but another 100-yard game could certainly be in his future this weekend. We can’t fully trust any B1G receivers in cash games just yet, but I’m fully comfortable with Reed in tournaments. Projected Value: 2X-5X
Seth Williams, Auburn ($6,000): Williams makes his 2nd straight appearance in our article and for good reason. He well out-performed his salary last week at $4,900, and while $1,100 more expensive this week, he should be in for a solid day against an LSU secondary that looked to be improved last week, but has notably had its share of struggles. He has some competition for targets but is the most talented receiver of the bunch. Projected Value: 2.5X-5X
Thanks for reading! Enjoy the games, good luck, and Go Dawgs!
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